A Quasi-experimental Assessment

By Christopher Uchenna Obasi
Political Economist | Leadership and Management Strategist | NYCAR Scholar

Institutional Affiliation:
New York Centre for Advanced Research (NYCAR)

Publication No.: NYCAR-TTR-2025-RP033
Date: October 11, 2025
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17386770

Peer Review Status:
This research paper was reviewed and approved under the internal editorial peer review framework of the New York Centre for Advanced Research (NYCAR) and The Thinkers’ Review. The process was handled independently by designated Editorial Board members in accordance with NYCAR’s Research Ethics Policy.

chobasi7@gmail.com 

Abstract

Social protests have remained a critical aspect of the laws of motion of the Nigerian political economy even since pre-colonial times. However, despite their historical organization to induce structural changes in the Nigerian conjuncture, social protests appeared to have done very little in reconfiguring the fundamental character of the Nigerian state. Accordingly, this paper adopted the Social Movement Impact Theory in evaluating the intriguing nexus between social protests and state character transformation in Nigeria. After analyzing available secondary data on social protests in the country from a period spanning the Aba Women’s Riots of 1929 to the EndSARS protests of 2020, it discovered that the state’s historical reluctance to address protest demands in their entirety elicited an endless cycle of protestations on basically similar issues, with attendant human suffering, death and destruction of property. It further discovered that while social protests effaced certain aspects of state policy at superficial levels, the fundamental character of the Nigerian state vehemently remained the same. Consequently, it validated the null hypothesis that the preponderance of social protests in Nigeria has not fundamentally transformed the character of the Nigerian state. The Ex-post Facto Quasi Experimental Research Design was adopted for the study while its “pre-test-post-test” component represented as O₁XO₂ was used in its multi group form to analyze each pre and post protest environment in a qualitative-descriptive manner to ascertain whether any of the selected major protests under study caused a radical transformation of the character of the Nigerian state. Data collection was qualitative.

Keywords: Nigeria, Political Economy, Social Protests, State Character, Transformation.

Introduction

Social protests are the logical outcome of every oppressive and arbitrary system, as well as the physical dramatization of social class antagonisms. Protests emerge to challenge arbitrariness and are fashioned to effect social change. According to Loya and McLeod (2020), 

Social Protest is a form of political expression that seeks to bring about social or political change by influencing the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of the public or the policies of an organization or institution. Protests often take the form of overt public displays, demonstrations, and civil disobedience, but may also include covert activities such as petitions, boycott/boycott, lobbying, and various online activities. (Loya and McLeod, 2020, p. 1)   

Protests have occurred globally with extant literature appearing to focus more on the nature, characteristics and behaviour of these protest movements (Turner and Killian, 1993; Williams and Houghton, 2023), their causes (Sen and Avci, 2016), degree of violence unleashed during such protests (Kishi and Jones, 2020) and questions surrounding their sponsorship and funding (Rogers, 2023), rather than to what extent such protests are able to fundamentally transform state character by setting and achieving fundamental objectives, instead of superficial ones. In Nigeria, social protests have been a part of the socioeconomic system since pre-colonial times. According to Adebowale (2020), the earliest form of social protest in pre-colonial Nigeria emerged in the old Oyo Empire where the Alaafin could be presented with a calabash signaling him to commit suicide if he was found wanting in the discharge of his duties. However, despite the litany of protests littering Nigeria’s colonial and pre-colonial history, the character of the Nigerian state has fundamentally remained the same, so that even the marginal “successes” achieved by these protests are soon undermined. For instance, the first major protest in colonial Nigeria was the Aba Women’s Riots of 1929. Scholars generally agree that the riot, also known as “Ogu Umunwanyi” or “women’s war” occurred when thousands of women from the Calabar and Owerri provinces of southeastern Nigeria and other parts especially the Igbo-speaking Bende district of Umuahia converged in Oloko, one of the four clans that make up present-day Ikwuano Local Government Area of Abia State, Nigeria to protest what they perceived as a conspiracy between the colonial government and their unilaterally installed warrant chiefs to supplant the women’s hitherto dominant political roles in the pre-colonial society (Anoba, 2018; Evans, 2009). However, according to Adebowale (2020), the last straw that broke the camel’s back was the intolerable direct taxation policy imposed on the market women by the colonial government through the Native Revenue (Amendment) Ordinance. Even though the riots succeeded in getting the colonial government to rescind the policy of direct taxation on the market women, the general oppressive character of the colonial government persisted throughout the period of colonization. Notwithstanding the resignation of some warrant chiefs, the abolition of the warrant chiefs system which was one of the goals of the riots was not achieved. More importantly, the colonial government never abandoned its repressive disposition towards the natives. According to Evans (2009), during the Aba Women’s riot, more than 50 rioting women were killed. Interestingly, the Abeokuta Women’s Revolt of 1946 and others after it generally followed the same path of inability to fundamentally transform the character of both the colonial and post-colonial Nigerian state. The purpose of this research is to validate the null hypothesis that the preponderance of social protests in Nigeria has not transformed the fundamental character of the Nigerian state.  

Theoretical Framework

The researcher adopted the Social Movement Impact Theory as the theoretical framework for the study. Deeply rooted in Sociology, the Social Movement Impact Theory (also known as the Outcome Theory) is a subcategory of the Social Movement Theory which is primarily concerned with the assessment of the impact of social movements like strikes, protests, riots and other social agitations on society. The theory was propounded by Gamson (1975) in “The Strategy of Social Protest” which studied 53 social organizations between 1800 and 1945. The study found that organizations which attempted to dislodge certain persons from power were almost never successful. Gamson (1975) further discovered that the success of social protests was not without violence insisting that more radical and violent approaches to social agitations like targeted violence and general disorder were far more critical to bending the state in favour of the people than the mainstream pacifist approaches like marches, rallies and political lobbying. Further fillip was added to the argument on the impact of social movements with the advent of Piven and Cloward (1977)’s “Poor People’s Movements: Why They Succeed, How They Fail” later edited in 1979. The work conveyed the authors’ positions on the actualization of social change through protests. Using the Unemployed Workers’ Movement of the Great Depression, the Industrial Workers’ Movement, the Civil Rights Movement and the National Welfare Rights Organization as case studies, the researchers assessed the possibilities and limits of achieving social change through protests. Piven and Cloward (1977)’s work though considered provocative inspired an enduring legacy in the knowledge and understanding of social movements all over the world. Additionally, the work’s far-reaching impact was easily discernible from various names given to it at various times by various personalities. In 2019 and 2020, it was called a “classic” by Jannie Jackson and Daniel Devir respectively, while Sam Adler-Bell described it as “seminal.” Ed Pilkington was also to describe it as “the progressive bible.” Key pillars of the Social Movement Impact Theory include the role of external factors in the success of social agitations, the factionalization of the ruling class in an attempt to create neo-welfarist masses’ support, as well as the definitive and overwhelming role of violent disruptive action in achieving fundamental social change.

Accordingly, the Social Movements Impact Theory is best suited for the paper’s efforts to effectively explain the historical impotence of social protests in Nigeria at radically transforming the character of the Nigerian state. In addition, the Theory possesses the utility value of further enabling the researcher to make informed recommendations regarding the quagmire of continuing protestations with little or no fundamental impact on state character transformation; especially through forced concessions.  

Methodology

The Ex-post Facto Research Design was adopted for the study, incorporating the qualitative-descriptive method of data analysis. Data collection was based on the qualitative method which relied heavily on secondary documentary data from previous research. Accordingly, each major protest movement in Nigeria between 1929 and 2020 was studied on its merit especially in terms of its ability or inability to radically transform the character of the Nigerian state. This was done by using the “pre-test-post-test” component of the Ex-post Facto research design represented as O₁XO₂ in its multi group form to analyze the test environment before and after each protest in order to determine whether there were radical changes in the character of the Nigerian formation especially in the post protest period, and whether or not these changes (if any) were linked to any particular protest, which served as sub-independent variable for each group analysis. In other words, using the pre-test-post-test qualitative-descriptive components of the Ex post Facto Research Design, a keen evaluation of the pre and post protest environments in relation to each selected protest was crucial to understanding the impact and imprint of each protest (if any) in fundamentally transforming the workings of the Nigerian political economy. However, analysis of the pre and post protest environments was centered on certain key indicators of radical transformation like structural changes in the Nigerian political system vis-à-vis the holistic and practical alteration of Nigeria’s fundamental objectives and directive principles of state policy, epochal transformations like the movement from petit-bourgeois comprador capitalism to proletarian socialism or its concomitant transition from repressive and malignant crass materialism to populist welfarism, etc. The researcher was not interested in superficial transformations of state character like the mere retraction of a contentious policy pronouncement. 

What is more, the time frame of 1929 – 2020 is important because not only that the selected major protests in Nigeria occurred during the period, virtually all of these protests were widely documented. Accordingly, the choice of the time frame is also to ensure considerable analytical convenience aided by the preponderance of relevant data. Furthermore, the time frame also exposed the researcher to studying the phenomenon of social protests under colonial and post-colonial milieus which were not markedly different from each other and therefore, preempted the effects of historical “maturation” on the research procedure by not affecting its outcomes in any way. Finally, the main limitations of the research derived mainly from the same limitations inherent in the Ex-post Facto research design. In the case of this research, the researcher could not possibly control or manipulate variables owing to the historical nature of their occurrence. However, this impediment was partly remedied by the fact that historical “maturation” played a minimal role in contaminating research outcomes given the fact that the character of the Nigerian state under colonialism did not differ much from that of its postcolonial successor.  

Chronicle of Protests and Other Forms of Social Agitation in Nigeria

As it has been noted by Adebowale (2020), Adisa (2021) and Nsirimovu (2025), protests have existed in Nigeria since the pre-colonial era. A major institutionalized form of protest in the pre-colonial era was the traditional arrangement in the Oyo Empire where the Oba could be forced to commit suicide if he is presented with a calabash as a sign of popular dissatisfaction with his leadership. However, this study shall focus on selected major protests that have occurred in Nigeria since colonial times particularly after the amalgamation of the northern and southern protectorates to form Nigeria in 1914. Accordingly, Table 1 provides a list of these selected protests in Nigeria since 1929, as well as their stated objectives.

Table 1: List of Selected Major Protests in Nigeria Since 1929

Source: Author’s compilation based on data from Omonobi and Erunke (2017), Salaudeen (2017) and many other sources listed in the References.

Table 1 shows that in many instances, a plethora of demands is made on the state by protesters. However, in many cases, only few of these demands are met. The Table further illustrates that most of the demands often addressed were largely ephemeral, while those with fundamentally transformative implications on state character were usually ignored. 

Understanding the Concept of State Character

By the character of a state, we mean the attributes and reputations of that state which are discernible either in the form of the behavior of its government to its people or the attitude of its people to its government; but mostly the former. These attributes often possess key indicators which are usually measurable over a given period, and are either fundamental or superficial. For the purpose of this study, superficial aspects of state character could suffice in the state’s level of economic performance, tolerance to criticism, measure of repressive proclivity, extent of indulgence in human rights violations, press censorship and other forms of arbitrariness like the arrest of journalists, shutting down of universities and media outfits, killing of protesters and so on. Alternatively, fundamental aspects of state character could suffice in the type of economic system in practice (feudalism, capitalism etc.) – and therefore, the nature of class-based contentions (lords versus vassals, bourgeoisie versus proletariat), the ownership of state sovereignty (colonialism, neocolonialism, indigenous or self-governance etc.), the nature of the state (fascism, Nazism, monarchical absolutism etc.), the form of government (cabinet or Westminster model, presidential system), and so on. More often, the superficial character of the state is rooted in its fundamental character, so that an understanding of the superficial character of the state is not complete until a comprehensive understanding of its fundamental character is achieved. For example, a feudalist state (fundamental character) is likely to be conservative (fundamental character) which means that social progress in the form of national development would be slow (superficial character) because a conservative society is usually afraid of innovation which is crucial for rapid social progress or national development (superficial character). However, it is instructive to note that in the case of Nigeria, any meaningful appreciation of the character of the Nigerian state must first begin with the concern as to whether the character of post-colonial Nigerian state was actually different from its character in the colonial era, since post-colonialism or neocolonialism is essentially the continuation of colonialism from outside. Thus, as it would appear, almost all the attributes of colonial Nigeria have been carried over to independent Nigeria. 

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Fundamental Aspects of State Character in Nigeria

In this segment of the study, effort would be made to identify what constitutes the fundamental aspects of state character in Nigeria – the transformation of which is the primary concern of the researcher. Our point of departure is an era somewhere before 1929, possibly the mid-19^th Century when colonialism began to take root in the area now called Nigeria. It is necessary to consider the nature of state character before 1929 in order to better appreciate what fundamental changes (if any) that the Aba Women’s Riot of that year was able to impose on the nature of state character in Nigeria. Admittedly, the subsisting political entity called the Federal Republic of Nigeria was not in existence in 1929 however, since government in whatever form is a continuum, and given the fact that the colonial political groupings of the period eventually coalesced into what we now call Nigeria, we assume that the history of these groupings is the history of Nigeria. Furthermore, our study of what constitutes the fundamental character of the Nigerian state will be in two phases namely – the colonial and postcolonial phases.

As we have noted earlier, state character in colonial and postcolonial Nigeria was essentially the same. For example, according to Ake (1981), the characteristics of the colonial economy to which Nigeria once belonged were disarticulation, market imperfections and monopolistic tendencies, reliance on few export commodities, dependence, complexities and discontinuities in the social relations of production; while those of the postcolonial economy included disarticulation, monopolistic tendencies, narrow resource base, dependence, as well as complexities in the social relations of production. Reliance on few export commodities is also a prominent feature of the postcolonial economy. These characteristics deserve mention because the character of the state is often a derivative of the character of the market; the state being a superstructure of the market – but there are other characteristics of the Nigerian state which may not have direct bearing on the market. For instance, it has the propensity for ethno-religious conflicts and elusive national identity (Agbiboa, 2013; Oduwole & Fadeyi, 2013), its modern administrative structure, federalism and intergovernmental relations are still heavily affected by colonial administrative policies (Onyambayi et al, 2024), it has problems arising from ethnic diversity (Ojie & Ewhrudjakpor, 2009), it is confronted by increasing insecurity often linked to terrorist activity (Ait-Hida & Brinkel, 2012), it has a warped federalism (Kirsten, 1996), and political violence cum voter apathy are often pronounced (Faluyi et al, 2019; Nwambuko et al, 2024; Okoh, 2025). However, this paper is of the view that while some of these characteristics are superficial (that is, not organic enough to constitute an overarching form of state identity), others are fundamental (or serve as the crux of overarching state identity). Accordingly, Table 2 shows the categorization of state character into some of its superficial and fundamental aspects.

Table 2 Categorization of State Character

Source: Author’s categorization.       

Quasi-experimentation of the ‘X’ and ‘Y’ Variables

As noted earlier, this study is based on the Ex-post Facto Research Design. More specifically, the “pre-test-post-test” variant of the Ex-post Facto design proved very useful in helping the researcher conduct this quasi-experimentation. The notation is represented as O₁ X O₂, where

O₁ = nature of the “pre” environment before a particular protest.

O₂ = nature of the “post” environment after a particular protest.

X = Experimental treatment of the independent variable (social protest) on the pre-test environment. 

Therefore, for any given number of groups undergoing quasi-experimentation – say, three or more, the multi group pre-test-post-test notation is given as;

O₁ X₁O₂

O₁ X₂O₂

O₁X₃O₂ … O₁X_nO₂. 

Accordingly, the study’s first quasi-experimentation effort would logically begin with the period before 1929 which would most certainly be dominated by colonialism. As such, the character of the Nigerian state at this period would be vehemently repressive because the very nature of the colonial enterprise is based on domination which expectedly should be opposed by the natives, leading to state-sponsored repression. 

Consequently, for the Aba Women’s Riot of 1929, O₁X₁O₂ is as follows:

For the Abeokuta Women’s Revolt of 1947, O₁X₂O₂ is given as:

For the Ali Must Go Riots of 1978, O₁X₃O₂ is represented as:

For the Anti-SAP Riots of 1989, O₁X₄O₂ is given as:

For the June 12 Protests of 1993, O₁X₅O₂ is given as:

For the Occupy Nigeria Protests of 2012, O₁X₆O₂ is given as:

For the EndSARS Protests of 2020, O₁X₇O₂ is given as:

Analysis of Findings

From the foregoing, it is evident that successive protests in Nigeria have hardly achieved much in terms of transforming the fundamental aspects of the character of the Nigerian state. A key indicator of this failure is the logical necessity of recurrent protests along the lines of mostly similar contentions due to the persistence of fundamental issues which previous protests could not dislodge. Accordingly, the Aba Women’s Riot of 1929 and the Abeokuta Women’s Revolt of 1947 largely followed the anti-women taxation dimension because the former failed to attack and obliterate the very origins of market women taxation which is imperial colonialism, necessitating the occurrence of the latter for similar reason. Thus, had the Aba Women’s Riots of 1929 been ferocious and resilient enough to force the colonialists to beat a retreat at that material time, there would have been no need for the Abeokuta Women’s Revolt of 1947. Similarly, the Ali Must Go Riots of 1978 and the Occupy Nigeria Protests of 2012 both arose to question the general issues of economic inequality and poor quality of lives of Nigerians occasioned by the perfidy of the political class which thrives under cover of the more fundamental character or structure of colonial authoritarian liberalism, bequeathed to Nigeria’s petit bourgeoisie by the departing colonialists. The June 12 Protests of 1993 and the EndSARS Protests of 2020 which challenge government’s arbitrariness and state repression also come under this cover.

Fundamentally, these patterns have occurred and would likely continue mainly because successive protest movements in Nigeria are quickly pacified by the achievement of superficial protest demands which hardly challenge the fundamental issues. Thus, the Aba Women’s Riots of 1929 ended with the reversal of market women taxation which was epiphenomenal to imperial colonialism occasioned by the contradictions of Western domestic capitalism. A more effective protest movement would have forced the retreat of colonialism at the time, leading to Nigeria’s early independence long before the discovery of oil. If this had occurred, it is possible that the country would have been better prepared to achieve economic prosperity because the agricultural sector which was the mainstay before oil could have been further strengthened to withstand the curse of crude oil; thereby severely forestalling the country’s current crisis of food insecurity. 

Similarly, the EndSARS Protests of 2020 quickly began to lose steam at the mention of the disbandment of the notorious Special Anti-robbery Squad of the Nigeria Police. To complicate matters, bags of rice and noodles allegedly looted from warehouses across the Country tended to give protesters the permanent feeling of immunity from hunger; hence, the futility of further protests. It was therefore not surprising that when news of alleged shooting of protesters at the Lekki Toll Gate began to filter in, every protester saw the opportunity to quickly abandon ship and return to his tent. In point of fact, the EndSARS protests died long before the alleged shooting at the Lekki Toll Gate. Furthermore, the June 12 Protests of 1993 which could have been the most historic of all, in view of its potential capacity at the time to restore Chief MKO Abiola’s mandate and finally set Nigeria on the part of economic recovery through radical holistic restructuring became lethargic at what could have been its finest hour. A more effective protest movement could have leveraged the assassination of Alhaja Kudirat Abiola in 1996 to insist on the restoration of the MKO Abiola mandate or nothing, as sine qua non for continued tranquility in the country. That singular insistence could have paved the way for Nigeria’s liberation from the stranglehold of international finance and industrial capital which is the fundamental culprit behind many of the country’s current problems. What is more, if the June 12 protests could force General Ibrahim Babangida to “step aside,” then, there should have been no doubt as to what it could have achieved, and the extent to which it could have achieved it. Unfortunately, the installation of an illegal puppet “Interim Government” and mere promises by the Abacha junta to release Chief MKO Abiola and restore his mandate quickly took the winds off the sails of “June 12,” so that by the time sustained state repression in the form of random assassinations set in, the movement was already too weak to withstand the pressure, resulting in key players escaping through the “NADECO route” and others. There were even insinuations about the disloyalty of certain prominent members of the movement suspected to be working hand-in-hand with the Abacha junta to further derail the mandate.   

Conclusion

The paper x-rayed the phenomenon of recurring protests in Nigeria especially along the lines of similar contentions. More importantly, it was worried about the inability of these recurring protests to fundamentally transform the character of the Nigerian state in order to vitiate the need for further protests on similar issues. Accordingly, the multi group component of the Ex Post Facto research design was applied in a quasi-experimental method to validate the null hypothesis that successive protests in Nigeria have not fundamentally transformed the character of the Nigerian state. Furthermore, the paper identified part of the causes of this failure to include premature pacification of protest movements following the achievement of superficial objectives, and highlighted the implications of this failure to include the perpetuity and continuous complication of the fundamental issues that engender recurrent protests along similar lines; with attendant negative implications for the wellbeing of the Nigerian state. Consequently, it made salient recommendations that could guide the behavior of future protest movements in Nigeria, with a view to making them more efficient at tackling the fundamental issues that enslave the Country, and render it incapable of autochthonous development.

Recommendations

In view of the foregoing, it is recommended that future protest movements in Nigeria should:

a. Target and dismantle the fundamental underlying issues behind every social malaise instead of attacking the social malaise itself.

b. Be resolutely vehement in accomplishing all set objectives.

c. Take steps to identify and preempt all long and short-term distractions that could weaken the resolve of protesters.

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